Probability and recurrence of tropical cyclones in Western Samoa

Abstract

This report presents a detailed analysis of the probability for and the recurrence of tropical cyclones of varying intensity that may impact Western Samoa. The recurrence of gale to major hurricane force winds is estimated for the five degree square of ocean that includes Western Samoa as well the wind speeds that can be expected to reach Western Samoa. The deep-water significant wave height that will result from those winds is estimated, and the recurrence interval for those wave heights predicted. This information is developed for coastal engineering works in the selection of the design maximum wind speed associated with tropical cyclones, and in the selection of design waves for coastal and harbour facilities in Western Samoa.