COSPPac Monthly Climate Bulletin, January 2021.
SPREP Publications, Climate Change Resilience
La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. International climate models suggest it is likely to continue to at least February 2021. • La Niña is likely to have peaked but impacts are expected to persist to March. • A moderate to strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse is expected to move slowly eastwards into the central Pacific in the next week or two. • The OLR total and anomaly maps suggest the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was less active than normal. The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) on the other hand, was active and shifted to the southwest. • The January Rainfall image is dominated by a large area of reduced convection stretching over the western to central equatorial Pacific, with the main centre west of the Date Line. • January Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) anomaly negative anomalies east of about 160° in the tropical Pacific. Positive anomalies were present in the southern sub-tropical Pacific east of Samoa.