Climate risk profile for Samoa

Abstract

The likelihood (i.e. probability) components of climate-related risks in Samoa are evaluated for both present day and future conditions. Pr esent day conditions are described using data for Apia and, for some parameters, Afiamalu. Anticipated changes over time reflect the influence of global warming. The risks evaluated are extreme rainfall events (both six-hourly and daily), drought, high sea levels, extreme winds and extreme high air and water temperatures. Projections of future climate-related risk are based on the output of global climate models, for a range of emission scenarios. All the likeliho od components of the climate-related risks show increases as a result of global warming, though for some the increases are small relative to the uncertainties. Best estimates of long term, systematic change s in the average climate for Samoa indicate that by 2050 sea level is likely to have incr eased by 36 cm, rainfall by 1.2%, extreme wind gusts by 7% and maximum temperatures by 0.7 C.