Regional Early Action Rainfall Watch: Monthly and seasonal Rainfall Watch: March 2024.

Abstract

The El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024. Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Niño. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. Short term pressure patterns are characteristic of an El Niño state, but when averaged over 60- and 90- days they are more typical of ENSO-neutral. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Niño strength.