Pacific at risk: our knowledge, the reality

Abstract

H:\Published Reports\EMP Divisi1 Pacific Sea-level Rise the 11 tide gauges installed in 11 Pacific island countries, relative sea levels in the South Pacific have been rising by as much as 25 mm yr-1 since 19941. This is more than 10 times the global rate of sea-level rise this century. This finding is validated by satellite data which show an in- crease of 2 – 3 cm yr-1, particularly from Papua New Guinea to Fiji. The cause of this variation is not clear, but appears likely to be related to changes in ocean currents associ- ated with El Niño events Already Inevitable Sea-level Rise IPCC scenarios, also studied likely future sea-level rise if all countries met their Kyoto Protocol commitments, and if technology made it possible to cease all human emissions after 2020. This admittedly optimistic scenario would pro- duce a sea-level rise of 14 – 32 cm, peaking in about 2050. Such an increase, even without the associated increased height of storm surges coming off a higher sea level, is of deep concern to