Implications of climate change and sea level rise for Tokelau : report of a preparatory mission

Abstract

The foregoing quotations, those presented to or sanctioned by governments and inter- governmental agencies on the one hand, and those contained in magazines and newspapers (as well as in the local press and on radio) on the other hand, provide one of the contexts for the present study. The effects of such reports on island governments, officials, elders and not the least island residents themselves was, as several Tokelauans told us, one of uncertainty, bewilderment and genuine fear about the future for their families, lands and livelihood. This fear was heightened and reinforced by the experience of two recent storms in Tokelau, Tropical Cyclone OFA in February, 1990 and Tropical Cyclone VAL in December, 1991, which raised in people's minds questions such as: Is this the start of the greenhouse effect? Is the apparent increase in cyclone incidence a consequence of global warming? Will cyclone frequency continue to increase in the future in parallel with sea level rise? These events and questions provide a second local context for this study.