The Best of Both Worlds: A decision-making framework for combining traditional and contemporary forecast systems

Abstract

In most countries, national meteorological services either generate or have access to seasonal climate forecasts.However,inanumberofregions,theuptakeoftheseforecastsbylocalcommunitiescanbelimited, with the locals instead relying on traditional knowledgeto make their climate forecasts.Both approachesto seasonal climate forecasting have bene ts, and the incorporation of traditional forecast methods into contemporaryforecastsystemscanleadtoforecaststhatarelocallyrelevantandbettertrustedbytheusers.This in turn could signi cantly improve the communication and application of climate information, especially to remote communities. A number of different methodologies have been proposed for combining these forecasts. Through considering the bene ts and limitations of each approach, practical recommendations are providedonselectingamethod,intheformofadecisionframework,thattakesintoconsiderationbothuser and provider needs. The framework comprises four main decision points: 1) consideration of the level of involvement of traditional-knowledge experts or the community that is required, 2) existing levels of traditional knowledge of climate forecasting and its level of cultural sensitivity, 3) the availability of long-term data—both traditional-knowledge and contemporary-forecast components, and 4) the level of resourcing available.Noonemethodissuitableforeveryoneandeverysituation;however,thedecisionframeworkhelps to select the most appropriate method for a given situation.