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Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of six invasive alien plants in Nepal.
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Shrestha Uttam Babu

The biological invasions have been increasing at multiple spatial scales and the management of invasive alien species is becoming more challenging due to confounding effects of climate change on the distribution of those species. Identification of climatically suitable areas for invasive alien species and their range under future climate change scenarios areessentialfor long-term management planningofthesespecies. Using occurrence data of six of the most problematic invasive alien plants (IAPs) of Nepal (Ageratum houstonianum Mill., Chromolaenaodorata (L.) R.M. King & H. Rob., Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit., Lantana camara L., Mikania micrantha Kunth, and Parthenium hysterophorus L.), we have predicted their climatically suitable areas across the country under the current and two future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070). We have developed an ensemble of eight different species distribution modelling approaches to predict the location of climatically suitable areas. Under the current climatic condition, P. hysterophorus had the highest suitable area (18% of the total country’s area) while it was the lowest for M. micrantha (12%). A predicted increase in the currently suitable areas ranges from 3% (M. micrantha) to 70% (A. houstonianum) with the mean value for all six species being 29% under the future climate change scenario for 2050. For four species (A. houstonianum, C. odorata, H.suaveolens and L. camara), additional areas at elevations higher than the current distribution will provide suitable habitat under the projected future climate. In conclusion, all six IAPs assessed are likely to invade additional areas in future due to climate change and these scenarios need to be considered while planning for IAPs management as well as climate change adaptation.
Report on results of rat control trials in the Tokelau Islands from 30 July to 20 September 1970 and recommendations for a comprehensive scheme of rat control
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Kazimierz Wodzicki

1970
The visit to the Tokelau Islands described below is the third carried out in a study of ecology, rat control and related problems. The first visit in 1966/67 (Wodzicki 1968 A) was devoted primarily to the study of the ecology of the Polynesian rat (Rattus exulans) and the environment, including the animals and the vegetation, of Nukunonu atoll. The main objects of the second expedition in April-June 1968 (Wodzicki 1968 B) were the initiation of a long-term investigation of rat damage on all three atolls and the training of two men from each island as rat control operatives. The present visit was planned with the following tow main objectives in mind: 1. the study of the relationship of rat damage to various coconut varieties growing in the Tokelau Islands; and 2. the conduct of rat control trials with the view of preparing for the Administrator, Tokelau Islands (Mr. Richard B. Taylor) recommendations for a rat control scheme suitable for the Tokelau Islands. The preliminary analysis of data collected during the fifteen months long investigation of rat damage in 1968/69 on the three atolls suggested that palms belonging to some varieties may be more prone to rat damage then others (Wodzicki 1970). It seemed important that we learn more about the character of palms growing on the three atolls. With regard to rat control, trials with various kinds of poisons have been carried out since our first visit to the Tokelaus in 1966/67 (Wodzicki 1968 A). However, during our first two visits knowledge of rat ecology was not sufficiently advanced to allow for more sophisticated tests. Since the author's 1968 visit, the important work on rat control in the Gilbert and Ellice Islands by F.J. Smith (Smith 1969) has become available. This information and our knowledge of rat ecology, gradually acquired since the beginning of the Tokelau Islands rat project, now makes possible a programme that could become the basis of a practical rat control scheme for the three islands. As most of the previous work had been carried out on Nukunonu atoll only, it was felt that half of the time during the visit should be spent on Fakaofo and th remainder on Atafu. Following a brief descrption of these trials is the writer's recommendation of a rat control scheme submitted to the Administrator, Tokelau Islands. Finally, some other observations on plants, animals and related aspects are friefly reported and collections made for the Botany Division, D.S.I.R. and the Dominion Museum are briefly mentioned.