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The three most invasive rat species, black or ship rat Rattus rattus, brown or Norway rats, R. norvegicus and Pacific rat, R. exulans have been incrementally introduced to islands as humans have explored the world’s oceans. They have caused serious deleterious effects through predation and competition, and extinction of many species on tropical islands, many of which are biodiversity hotspots. All three rat species are found in virtually all habitat types, including mangrove and arid shrub land. Black rats tend to dominate the literature but despite this the population biology of invasive rats, particularly Norway rats, is poorly researched on tropical islands. Pacific rats can often exceed population densities of well over 100 rats ha?1 and black rats can attain densities of 119 rats ha?1, which is much higher than recorded on most temperate islands. High densities are possibly due to high recruitment of young although the data to support this are limited. The generally aseasonally warm climate can lead to year-round breeding but can be restricted by either density-dependent effects interacting with resource constraints often due to aridity. Apparent adverse impacts on birds have been well recorded and almost all tropical seabirds and land birds can be affected by rats. On the Pacific islands, black rats have added to declines and extinctions of land birds caused initially by Pacific rats. Rats have likely caused unrecorded extinctions of native species on tropical islands. Further research required on invasive rats on tropical islands includes the drivers of population growth and carrying capacities that result in high densities and how these differ to temperate islands, habitat use of rats in tropical vegetation types and interactions with other tropical species, particularly the reptiles and invertebrates, including crustaceans.

Rodents remain one of the most widespread and damaging invasive alien species on islands globally. The current toolbox for insular rodent eradications is reliant on the application of sufficient anticoagulant toxicant into every potential rodent territory across an island. Despite significant advances in the use of these toxicants over recent decades, numerous situations remain where eradication is challenging or not yet feasible. These include islands with significant human populations, unreceptive stakeholder communities, co-occurrence of livestock and domestic animals, or vulnerability of native species. Developments in diverse branches of science, particularly the medical, pharmaceutical, invertebrate pest control, social science, technology and defense fields offer potential insights into the next generation of tools to eradicate rodents from islands. Horizon scanning is a structured process whereby current problems are assessed against potential future solutions. We undertook such an exercise to identify the most promising technologies, techniques and approaches that might be applied to rodent eradications from islands. We highlight a Rattus-specific toxicant, RNA interference as species-specific toxicants, rodenticide research, crab deterrent in baits, prophylactic treatment for protection of non-target species, transgenic rodents, virus vectored immunocontraception, drones, self-resetting traps and toxicant applicators, detection probability models and improved stakeholder community engagement methods. We present a brief description of each method, and discuss its application to rodent eradication on islands, knowledge gaps, challenges, whether it is incremental or transformative in nature and provide a potential timeline for availability. We outline how a combination of new tools may render previously intractable rodent eradication problems feasible.

Rodent eradications undertaken on tropical islands are more likely to fail than eradications undertaken at higher latitudes. We report on 12 independent rodent eradication projects undertaken on tropical islands that utilized the results of an in situ bait availability study prior to eradication to inform, a priori, the bait application rate selected for the eradication. These projects also monitored bait availability during the eradication. The results from our analysis verified the utility of bait availability studies to future rodent eradication campaigns and confirmed the influence of two environmental factors that can affect bait availability over time: precipitation prior to the study and the abundance of land crabs at the study site. Our findings should encourage eradication teams to conduct in-depth assessments of the targeted island prior to project implementation. However, we acknowledge the limitations of such studies (two of the projects we reviewed failed and one removed only one of two rodent species present) and provide guidance on how to interpret the results from a bait availability study in planning an eradication. Study design was inconsistent among the twelve cases we reviewed which limited our analysis. We recommend a more standardized approach for measuring bait availability prior to eradication to provide more robust predictions of the rate at which bait availability will decrease during the eradication and to facilitate future comparisons among projects and islands.

Rat eradications on tropical islands have been less successful than operations in temperate climates. This is likely due to poor understanding of the factors unique to tropical regions that rat populations respond to, such as high numbers of land crabs, aseasonal climates and habitats not found at higher latitudes. On Aldabra Atoll, southern Seychelles, black rats were monitored for one year in three habitats over three climatic seasons to investigate changes in density and breeding to inform planning for a possible rat eradication. Rats bred all year in mangrove forest and in two of three seasons, including the dry season, in Pemphis forest, probably resulting from the saline tolerance of these habitats: lush vegetation and seeds were available there during the dry season. In contrast, rats from the adjacent mixed-scrub habitat only bred in the wet season due to desiccation of vegetation and lack of fresh water during other times of the year. Bait consumption trials showed that all rats ingested dyed bait when applied at 15 kg/ha, despite high rat densities and substantial bait interference by non-target species, but not at an application rate of 10 kg/ha. A novel ‘bola’ technique was tested for distributing bait into mangrove forest, where aerially applied rat bait would normally be lost due to tidal inundation. The method is likely to improve rat exposure to bait in mangrove forest and other habitats on tropical islands, and warrants further development.

Rats contribute to the decline of tropical seabird populations by affecting their breeding success through direct predation of eggs and chicks. When they coexist with other predators, invasive rats may also generate indirect interactions via the changes they impose on the structure of communities and trophic interactions following invasion (‘hyperpredation process’), or when apex predators are eradicated from the ecosystem (‘mesopredator release effect’). Understanding these effects is necessary to implement restoration operations that actually benefit threatened seabird populations. We investigated these processes on two French tropical seabird islands of the western Indian Ocean, Europa and Juan de Nova, where black rats coexist with two different apex predator species (introduced cats and potentially native barn owls). The parallel use of several methods (diet analysis, stable isotopes, seabird monitoring) to identify trophic roles of rats revealed that the direct impact of rats on seabirds was particularly high on Europa where only rats and owls occur, with high consumption of chicks resulting in low breeding success for several seabird species. We also suggested that hyperpredation associated with top-down regulation of cats is occurring on Juan de Nova, although territoriality of cats may buffer this process. Conversely we found evidence that mesopredator release effect is unlikely, irrespective of the apex predator identity. Considering the most likely effects on both islands we provided recommendations on eradication priorities to mitigate the risk of local extinction that seabirds are currently facing.