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The El Niño event continues in the tropical Pacific. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for December 2023 were higher than average across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The extent and magnitude of warm anomalies across the equatorial Pacific has decreased compared with November.

Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) for November 2023 showed a mature El Niño pattern. Across much of the tropical Pacific between 10°S and 10°N, SSTs were more than 0.8°C above the long-term average, increasing to nearly 3°C above average east of the Date Line.

The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development considered likely in the coming weeks, despite the current lack of atmospheric response. When El Niño Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.

The 3-month rainfall status for April to June 2023 was Very Dry or Seriously Dry stretching eastwards from eastern Solomon Islands, through Tuvalu, northern Fiji, Kiribati (southern halves of central and eastern), northern Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, patches in Samoa and American Samoa, northern Cook Islands, and northern French Polynesia. In addition, a area of Very Dry and Seriously Dry lay over the Coral Sea, western New Caledonia and southeast towards Norfork Island.

The Pacific Ocean is currently ENSO - neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño), with anomalous warmth in both the east and west of the basin. While oceanic ENSO indicators have continued to warm and are forecast to reach El Niño thresholds during winter, there has been little to no shift towards El Niño in atmospheric ENSO indicators

For Pacific Island countries in the western and central Pacific, region, there is a small region where below normal rainfall is likely or very likely stretching east and southeast from northeast PNG islands in the west, to a larger region in central Kiribati in east, and further to Cook Islands and French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island in the southeast

Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO reflect a mature La Niña. Models suggest a return to ENSO-neutral in January or February 2023.