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The likelihood (i.e. probability) components of c limate-related risks in Samoa are evaluated for both present day and future conditions. Changes over time reflect the influence of global warming. The risks evaluated are extreme rainfall events (both six-hourly and daily), drought, high sea levels, extreme winds and extreme high air and water temperatures. Projections of future climate-related risk are based on the output of global climate models, for given emission scenarios. All the likelihood co mponents of the climate-related risks show increases as a result of global warming, though for some the increases are small relative to the uncertainties. Best estimates of long term, systematic changes in the average climate for Samoa indicate that by 2050 sea level is likely to have increas ed by 36 cm, rainfall by 1.2%, extreme wind gusts by 7% and maximum temperatures by 0.7 C.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) uses the country environmental analysis (CEA) as the tool to assist with early incorporation of environmental considerations into the country strategy and programme (CSP) for its Developing Member Countries. The CEA provides targeted information necessary for informed decision making on environmental constraints, needs, and opportunities, including those that impinge upon poverty partnership agreements, as appropriate. The focus is on adding value to planned and ongoing development initiatives by reducing environmental constraints and exploiting environment- related opportunities.